DAILY ALERT
Special Report
Wednesday,
June 18, 2025
In-Depth Issues:

Underground Halls at Iran's Natanz Enrichment Plant Suffered "Direct Impacts" from Israel Strikes, IAEA Says - Matthew Mpoke Bigg (New York Times)
    The International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday that it had identified "direct impacts" on the underground enrichment halls at the Iranian nuclear site at Natanz, the main site for uranium enrichment, after Israel targeted the facility with missiles last Friday.
    The IAEA initially said that the attack had destroyed the aboveground part of the fuel enrichment plant, including its electricity infrastructure, but its latest statement reflected an assessment of more significant damage.
    It issued its updated assessment on the basis of continued analysis of high resolution satellite imagery.



Israel Is Reducing Iran's Missile Strength - Amos Harel (Ha'aretz)
    During the first five days of the war, close to half of Iran's long-range ballistic missile launchers were disabled, and nearly 40% of the missiles capable of hitting the Israeli home front were either launched or destroyed.
    In addition, 250 Iranian drones have been intercepted with a 100% success rate thus far.



Israeli Pilot: "We're Fighting an Enemy that's Threatening to Destroy Us" - Yaniv Kubovich (Ha'aretz)
    Maj. N., 31, an F-16 combat pilot who participated in the attacks on Iran, said, "We prepared for the possibility of encountering much more effective defense than what we have seen and are seeing today in Iran."
    When they first arrived over Iran, they saw the takeoffs of Iranian Air Force planes, but after several minutes they realized, "We saw them flying towards the east...they fled from us."
    "There's an insane sense here of mission and pride that we're fighting an enemy that's threatening to destroy us, and we're strong against it."
    "Every surface-to-surface missile that we destroy is one missile less to be launched against Israeli civilians, and every launcher that we destroy is another blow to their ability to harm us. It's clear to all of us what we're doing there."



Israel-Supporters Are Once Again Standing on the Right Side of History - Gil Troy (Jerusalem Post)
    With 92 million people, Iran is almost 10 times Israel's size. This "energy superpower" has 10% of the world's oil reserves and 15% of gas reserves.
    Yet Israel is walloping Iran and dominating its skies. In return, Iran brazenly targets Israeli civilians.
    Watching Islamists and Palestinians celebrating the long-distance missile murder of civilians, you wonder: Who would want to join their side, and how could they fool so many in the West?
    At this moment, Zionists and Israel-supporters are once again passing the "history test" - standing on the right side of history.
    The writer, a Distinguished Scholar of North American History at McGill University, is a Senior Fellow in Zionist Thought at the Jewish People Policy Institute.



A Front-Row Seat to the Israel-Iran War - Ani Wilcenski (Tablet)
    As a New Yorker spending a few weeks in Israel, I've now joined an illustrious group of trapped travelers who are now stuck dodging ballistic missiles.
    Ben-Gurion Airport is closed for the foreseeable future (for the longest period since 1948).
    Meanwhile, people here run into shelters and eat dinner under rocket interceptions as if it's normal - because, for them, it is normal.
    What makes Israelis so remarkable is not only their ability to survive threat after threat, but also their ability to continue living fully despite them.
    When home is fragile and security is a privilege, every act of normalcy is an act of defiance, and sometimes even an act of faith.
    Israelis are some of the warmest, most instinctively generous people in the world.
    I've lost count of how many Israelis have reached out with offers of vacant apartments and inquiries about how I am doing (fine) or how my parents in America are doing (atrociously).
    I've never been in another place where people so naturally carry each other emotionally, especially at times when you think they'd be too overwhelmed themselves.
    The writer is Tablet's deputy editor.



Echoes of the Blitz in Ramat Gan's Underground Station - Ariela Karmel (Times of Israel)
    At the Bialik light rail station in Ramat Gan, those descending the escalator are greeted by the scene of rows of mattresses lining the floor of the train platforms.
    Families unpack meals, children burrow into sleeping bags, friends chat quietly in corners.
    This is what night looks like now in the heart of Israel's most densely populated region, where a subterranean ecosystem has formed over the last four days with some 1,000 people taking shelter each night.
    Bialik Station is not overcrowded, in contrast to many shelters in residential buildings. It boasts clean bathrooms, air conditioning, Wi-Fi and coordinated management.
    Station employees patrol the space throughout the night as temporary wardens: distributing mattresses and supplies, mediating disputes, and ensuring the floor stays clean.



News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • U.S. Weighs Military Action in Iran - Shannon K. Kingston
    On Tuesday, U.S. officials signaled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible - or if President Trump might resort to military action instead. U.S. negotiators continued to assess that Iran is in a weak position and could be forced to come back to the negotiating table and to ultimately accept a deal that would require it to abandon all nuclear enrichment.
        While the Iranian regime has signaled a willingness to resume discussions with the U.S., the Trump administration has been looking for more concrete commitments that Iran agrees to drop its uranium enrichment before backing off the war path. But that scenario likely requires Iran to move quickly.
        Sources said the president has grown frustrated by Iran's inability to provide immediate answers and appears highly disinclined to allow a situation where it appears as if Tehran has successfully called his military bluff.
        B-2 stealth bombers are capable of carrying the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker-buster bombs, which might be able to destroy Iran's deep underground nuclear facility at the Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant. Six of the aircraft were previously deployed to the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. However, they were replaced by B-52 long-range bombers which are not capable of carrying bunker-buster bombs. (ABC News)
        See also U.S. Official: "It May Take a Few More Days of Strikes to Bring Iranians to Agree to Our Conditions" - Danny Zaken
    The U.S. has responded to Iranian mediation overtures by insisting that Tehran show greater flexibility on uranium enrichment on its own soil, the core point of contention. Israel, for its part, wants the nuclear discussions to include not only strict international oversight of Iran's enrichment facilities but also limits on ballistic missiles and a binding Iranian commitment to stop arming terrorist organizations. These would be considered opening conditions for both resuming talks and halting Israeli strikes.
        A U.S. official told Israel Hayom that "It may take a few more days of strikes and eliminations to bring them to agree to the conditions the United States is seeking."
        Diplomatic sources confirmed that during recent talks between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump, the topic of targeting senior Iranian officials was discussed. According to these sources, there were no disagreements on this issue, contrary to reports suggesting that Trump had opposed the killing of a top Iranian leader. (Israel Hayom)
  • Germany's Chancellor: Israel Is Doing the Dirty Work for All of Us - Rana Taha
    German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed respect for Israel's attack on Iran, calling it a service to Western allies. "This is the dirty work that Israel is doing for all of us," Merz told German broadcaster ZDF on Tuesday. "This mullah regime has brought death and destruction to the world," he added. "I can only say: the greatest respect for the fact that the Israeli army and the Israeli leadership had the courage to do this."  (Deutsche Welle-Germany)
  • Gaza March Activists Beaten, Detained in Egypt
    Organizers of a march to the Egyptian border with Gaza said on Tuesday that three participants were abducted by plainclothes officers in Cairo amid a wave of arbitrary detentions, deportations and abuse by security forces. The Global March to Gaza brought over 4,000 activists to Egypt. Since their arrival, dozens of participants said they have faced airport interrogations, deportations and roadblocks preventing access to the Sinai peninsula. Sources said 400 people have been deported. (Reuters)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • Israel Strikes Iranian Weapons Manufacturing Sites
    50 Israel Air Force jets struck a centrifuge production facility and multiple weapons manufacturing sites in the Tehran area on Tuesday night, the IDF announced Wednesday. The majority of the targets struck were facilities producing components and raw materials for surface-to-surface missiles.
        Some 30 missiles were launched at Israel on Tuesday. No casualties were reported. (Jerusalem Post)
  • IDF: Israel Will Achieve Goals in Iran within a Week or Two - Emanuel Fabian
    The IDF will achieve its objectives against Iran's nuclear program within a week or two, defense officials said Tuesday. They said the air force has destroyed 70 Iranian air defense batteries, while air force drones continued to hunt surface-to-air missile launchers and radars.
        Iran has been launching smaller salvos of missiles at Israel because its capabilities have been degraded by Israeli strikes, the IDF believes. According to IDF assessments, Iran is not trying to conserve missiles for a longer war, but rather is struggling to coordinate larger attacks.
        IDF Operations Directorate chief Maj.-Gen. Oded Basiuk said Tuesday that Israel's operation against Iran will not end until the IDF has removed the threat of its nuclear program and ballistic missiles. "We are striking the terror regime, not the people, who deserve a better future. Those who endanger us are the leadership in Tehran," he added. (Times of Israel)
  • Gaza Aid Group Rejects Claims that Dozens Were Killed at Its Distribution Site
    The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) said Tuesday: "A number of media outlets have falsely reported today that dozens of Palestinians were killed at a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation aid distribution site. This is categorically untrue. The incident in question did not occur at a GHF site, but rather near a UN World Food Program (WFP) location."
        "To date, not a single incident has occurred at or in the surrounding vicinity of GHF sites, nor has any incident occurred during our operating hours. Our distribution model is secure and designed specifically to prevent such tragedies, even under extreme pressure."  (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

    War with Iran

  • Israel's New Way of War - Benjamin Jensen
    The Israeli operation codenamed Rising Lion unfolded on June 13, 2025. First came swarms of small explosive drones that Israeli commandos had reportedly pre-positioned inside Iran months earlier, striking air-defense radars and communications nodes. Minutes later, over 200 Israeli fighter aircraft conducted precision strikes against more than 100 nuclear and military targets across Iran, including senior military leaders.
        The result was operational dislocation: Iranian early-warning networks were saturated, senior commanders were killed, and decision-making channels fractured. This shock-and-awe approach by Israel explains the limited initial Iranian response.
        The attack illustrates how combinations of conventional long-range strikes and unconventional operations have a unique role in modern war. As a result, Operation Rising Lion is a blueprint for future campaigns and suggests key investments the U.S. military will need to make to adapt to the changing character of war.
        The writer is director of the Futures Lab and a senior fellow at CSIS.  (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
  • Israel Had the Guts to Do What No One Else Would - Kill Iran's Atomic Bomb - Paul Baldwin
    Since the first wave of Israel's devastating demolition of Iran's military and nuclear capabilities, there has been much talk of the Middle East standing on the brink of all-out war. But where is it going to come from? Iran? Tehran will throw what is left of its ballistic missile stock in the rough direction of Israel, but on recent evidence, to absolutely no significant military or geo-political avail.
        The number of Iranian missiles which can reach Israel will soon be zero. So Hizbullah then? The Houthis? Syria? Hamas? They're all busted flushes, thanks largely to the breath-taking military competence of Israel. Israel is doing what the entire world wanted, but had neither the wit nor the guts to do themselves - ensuring the mad mullahs in Tehran never get their hands on a nuclear missile.
        Once again the world caught its collective breath as Israel's devastatingly effective military used both terrible force majeure to blast nuclear sites and rapier-like precision munitions to hit the very bedrooms of Iran's key military players and nuclear scientists.
        Israel has done the world a favor. If the world had had the guts to stop Germany's rearmament in the 1930s, 85 million lives would have been saved as World War 2 would never have started. This is just a 21st century version of same. And the Israelis can see it even clearer than the rest of us. If you think the world is on a knife-edge right now, imagine a world where the Mullahs have their finger on the nuclear button. (Daily Express-UK)
  • Why the Attacks on Iran Won't Lead to an Arab Embrace of Israel - Hussein Aboubakr Mansour
    Leaders, diplomats, and strategists across Arab Gulf capitals have hardly slept since Friday from sheer euphoria. For decades, Iran has cast an ominous shadow over their strategic calculations, an enduring threat they knew they were unable to deter or even meaningfully to contain. Israel's actions have effectively liberated the Gulf states from this menacing constraint.
        It would be natural to hope that the Gulf states, free of the Iranian threat and full of appreciation for what Israel can deliver, would at last embrace the Jewish state enthusiastically. Unfortunately, it is much more likely that, despite private admiration and cooperation, public acknowledgment and overt alignment with Israel will remain restrained. Arab regimes will undoubtedly deepen their security and intelligence coordination with Jerusalem, expand economic ties, and strengthen diplomatic engagement quietly and incrementally.
        Privately, Arab Gulf elites continue to marvel at Israeli security prowess. Yet these same elites are dispassionate and transactional. The Gulf monarchs are most likely to put ideology second to practical and achievable goals. Their admiration for Israel, therefore, won't translate into an enthusiastic embrace born of gratitude or generosity. On the contrary, the removal of the Iranian threat reduces, rather than increases, their incentive to make meaningful concessions to Israel.
        Indeed, the Gulf states may quietly reach out to the now weakened Iranian regime. With their archenemy crippled, vulnerable, and desperate, these countries have a rare opportunity to extend a lifeline, albeit conditionally, in exchange for clear, enforceable guarantees that Tehran abandon its aggressive regional ambitions. Such maneuvers would reflect a longstanding desire to maintain the regional balance of power, which in this case means making sure that neither Israel nor Iran become dominant.
        The writer is an Egyptian-American author and researcher at the Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy (ISGAP) in Washington. (Mosaic)
  • "Never Again" Is Now - Nadav Shragai
    The solemn vow of "never again," sworn in the wake of the Holocaust, is being realized today. This marks the divide between the history being shaped today and the fate they intended for us - nuclear warheads, stopped just shy of the final hour.
        Israel is decisively confronting a true existential threat aimed at its heart. It is cutting off, for years to come, the lifeline sustaining Hamas. It is sending a clear message to Hizbullah and all our adversaries. It signals to the nations in the region that Israel is no mere paper tiger. When called to strike the "head of the snake," it acts, even at the eleventh hour, even thousands of miles from its borders.
        The modern Haman sought to kill, destroy, and eradicate the Jews, from the youngest to the eldest, children and women alike. The Haman of our time boasted of these intentions openly. The singular lesson we have carried since Oct. 7 is that our enemies mean precisely what they declare, and we must take their words at face value, not reinterpret them. (Israel Hayom)
  • Why Israelis on Holiday Are Trying to Escape Back to a War Zone - Yaakov Katz
    On Thursday night, I boarded an El Al flight from London to Tel Aviv that was scheduled to land at 3:30 a.m. just as the Iranian attacks began. We were minutes from touchdown when the plane suddenly banked and turned. Twenty minutes later, we were on the ground in Paphos, Cyprus.
        For nearly two days, I was stuck in Cyprus. But wherever I went - on the streets, at the hotel, or at the Chabad House that opened its doors within hours - I encountered Israelis, dozens of them, all singularly focused on one goal: getting back to Israel.
        I came back on a tugboat that carried nine of us. An hour into the journey, the sky in front of us suddenly lit up. A flash - then a streak of fire, followed by an explosion. Then another. And another. We all knew what we were witnessing. Our group was sailing directly into a country at war. Ballistic missiles launched by Iran were raining down on our destination.
        None of us asked if it was safe. Not because we were reckless, but because we were Israeli. That's not how we think. This instinct to return - especially in times of danger - is etched into our national DNA. It's who we are. We saw this after the Hamas invasion on Oct. 7, when thousands of Israelis dropped everything and made their way home.
        When the sirens wail and the skies explode, Israelis don't run away. They run literally into the fire. In moments like these, you understand what truly defines a nation. It's the people who, when everything is on fire, still choose to come home.
        The writer is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute.  (Jewish Chronicle-UK)
Observations:

Can Israel End Iran's Nuclear Program? - Former IAEA inspector David Albright interviewed by Armin Rosen (Tablet)

David Albright, founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), on Monday gave an update on Israel's progress against the Iranian bomb.
  • Iran's nuclear program has "been set back significantly," but if the Fordow facility "continues to operate, they can break out and make weapon-grade uranium very quickly. I think on the weaponization side, the time to make the bomb has probably been extended by several months."
  • "It would be very dangerous for Israel to stop right now. Iran has a big program. There are a lot of parts to it, and it just takes a significant amount of time to really set it back sufficiently to feel like the job is done." If Israel just walks away, "we're in a worse situation because Iran would certainly be incentivized to move toward the bomb."
  • "It would still be very hard for Iran to move to build a bomb right now. In the long run Iran can replace the nuclear scientists killed this week, but in the short run they can't."
  • "You also have this destruction at the Isfahan enriched uranium metal production line. So you have just a chunk taken out of the line of things that have to be done to make the weapon-grade uranium core component."
  • "I think that Israel is deliberately trying to increase the time frame, I would say by at least a half a year or more, for Iran to be able to make even a non-missile-deliverable nuclear weapon, while also making Iran more scared to start that process."
  • Q: Can Israel disable Fordow without the use of large bunker-busters?
    Albright: "They could take out the electricity. They could destroy the ventilation system. They can easily destroy the pedestrian entrance. They can destroy the main entrances. There's two, and they can even use more powerful armaments to work their way back to the tunnel entrances."

Daily Alert is published on Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.
Unsubscribe from Daily Alert.